The moment I heard Obama's speech at the 2004 DNC, I knew he was the real deal. Even though I had a hunch he could break out and run for President in 2008, I am still stunned that he pulled it off. I didn't think the country could elect a true leader, but apparently "Yes, we can!"
I am an independent, and I don't really like political parties, especially since we really only have two of them. Maybe I'm just projecting, but Obama doesn't really seem like a Democrat to me. People complained during the campaign that he didn't offer many specifics of his plans, causing the left to worry he was too centrist and the right to worry that he was too classically liberal.
But to me, he just seemed like a reasonable guy that was playing the game he had to play in order to get elected. Now we'll see what he's really made of, and my prediction is that he's going to change everything, even more than people expect.
I was telling someone today at lunch of my long-held belief that there exists a set of policies that would get 75-80% support and approval from the public, and that those polices look different from a "Democratic" or "Republican" set of policies that would get only 50-60% support. To me these solutions seem obvious, but in the slash & burn political atmosphere that's dominated the national stage for as long as I can remember, they never saw the light of day. No one asked the right questions, and no leader was there to chart a course to deliver true solutions that work for everyone.
With Obama in office, this all changes.
My Predictions
What I see in Obama is a guy that's going figure out the "third way". I've heard this phrase a lot on shows lately, and I think you'll be hearing even more of it. As a result of this "third way," I am expecting some of the following things to happen:
- Obama is going to have to stomp on the Democrats to show them that he's in charge. I don't think that Congress gets it yet, and I think the new Democratic-majority Congress is going to try to jam through a bunch of partisan crap. Obama is going to veto something unexpected to show that he's setting the agenda and that he's not going to stand for bad government anymore. This will cause Democrats to cower, Republicans to cheer, and he'll have the public solidly in his corner for the rest of his term. This will extend his honeymoon period far longer than the horrible economy would otherwise allow. This will happen within 3-6 months.
- Corollary: Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi, or both, will lose their leadership position.
- This will be the most transparent administration, ever. Expect publishing of lots of data, numbers, etc. There's a chance he'll have some press conferences where he answers more questions than any President in recent history.
- There will be huge energy infrastructure investments.
- He's going to let some companies collapse; maybe financial, maybe autos. The financial system is nowhere near fixed, and he isn't going to let people believe it is. Expect the markets to get worse before they get better. Expect some serious new regulation around financial products to help prevent this type of mess in the future.
- There will be aggressive tax cuts on investment-generating activities: small businesses, capital gains, etc.
- He's going to cut a lot of government spending programs.
I am looking forward to finding out if I'm any good at this prediction business. Check back in a few months!
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